The Great Divergence
In the world of macroeconomics, we are often forced to choose between two loud narratives: a golden age of a productivity boom or the dark shadow of a systemic crisis. As the fog of AI integration thickens, it’s becoming clear that we aren’t moving toward just one of these futures. We are moving toward both, simultaneously.
The real question isn’t whether the technology “works”—we already know it does. The question is about velocity and distribution. Will the ship of our global economy sail smoothly into new waters, or will the speed of the wind tear the sails apart?
1. The Base Case: A Boom with a Caveat
My default stance remains optimistic: a structural productivity boom is the most likely outcome.
- Falling Service Costs: When tax, legal, and consulting services become affordable, the “real” wealth of the consumer rises.
- GDP Expansion: History shows that when labor and capital reallocate from shrinking industries to new demands, the economy doesn’t just survive; it expands.
But here is the catch. The boom is structural, while the crisis is conditional. A localized shock, if entangled with credit markets, can easily escalate into something much colder.
2. The Speed of Disruption: Adaptation vs. Chaos
Speed is the invisible hand that determines stability.
- The Crisis Path: If AI replaces labor in 6–12 month cycles, policy cannot pivot, and households cannot reallocate. Disruption outruns adaptation.
- The Boom Path: If this unfolds over 2–5 years, it allows for “rotational grace.” Firms restructure, and labor markets breathe.
“Technology rarely destroys economies. But a transition that moves faster than human institutions can destabilize them.”
3. The Credit Transmission: Where the Fog is Thickest
The most fragile point of our current journey isn’t the AI model itself—it’s the leverage. Certain segments of private credit, built on the “predictable” recurring revenue of SaaS, are facing a moment of truth. If the trust in these revenue models weakens, we face a liquidity stress that could spread far beyond the tech sector.
Is the “SaaS Collapse” overstated? Likely, yes. Deeply embedded systems tied to regulation and security aren’t going anywhere. However, the “long-tail” of weak, single-function tools will face a brutal margin erosion.
The Final Takeaway: A Fragile Expansion
We are likely entering an era of “Boom with Instability Beneath It.” On the surface, we see service deflation and rising automation—a macro-level expansion. Beneath the surface, we see pockets of structural instability: margin collapses in intermediaries and pressure on offshore services.
The variable that matters most isn’t AI’s capability. It is the health of our credit transmission and the speed of our social adaptation. We are living in a boom resting on a thin layer of financial fragility. Navigating this requires us to keep one eye on the glowing horizon and the other on the cracks forming beneath our feet.
The Morning Calm Notebook 
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